Capítulos

 

Chapter 1-Introduction

        1.1- The Importance of Power Systems reliability Evaluation

        1.2- The Importance of Maintenance Policies for Power Systems Reliability

        1.3- Propose of this thesis

        1.4- Organization of this thesis

        

Chapter 2- State of the art

        2.1- The deterministic approach

        2.2- The probabilistic approach

               2.2.1- The analytical methods

               2.2.2- Monte Carlo Simulation Method

                       2.2.2.1- State Sampling method

                       2.2.2.2- State Duration Sampling method

                       2.2.2.3- The Importance Sampling 

                       2.2.2.4- The Control Variates technique

        2.3- Maintenace Policies

               2.3.1- Reactive Maintenance

               2.3.2- Preventive Maintenance

               2.3.3-  Predective Maintenance      

        2.4- The most common Probability Distributions 

        2.5- Conclusions

                 

Chapter 3- Modelling the problem with Sequential Monte Carlo

         3.1- Formal description of Sequential Monte Carlo

         3.2- The Sequential Monte Carlo Reliability algorithm

         3.3- Assessing the reliability indices

         3.4- Description of the failure and repair time generation

         3.5- Inclusion of the different maintenance techniques in the algorithm

                3.5.1- Preventive Maintenance

                3.5.2- Predictive Maintenance

         3.6- Conclusions

          

Chapter 4- Solving the problem with Sequential Monte Carlo

         4.1- The Distribution System

         4.2- Evaluation of the performance of Monte Carlo with a constant failure rate

         4.3- Evaluation of the performance of Monte Carlo with a variable failure rate

         4.4- Evaluation of the performance of Monte Carlo with maintenace activities

                4.4.1- Preventive Maintenance

                4.4.2- Predictive Maintenance

         4.5- Conclusions

              

Chapter 5- Conclusions and Future Work

         5.1- The main goals achieved

         5.2- Future Work